For the Aussievision song review podcast series we went out to 12 Europeans and 12 Australians to get their full 41 song order. This was way back in March so over the next few days we'll be going back to some of these jury members to get their thoughts ahead of the live show last week. Next up is....
Liv from Australia
Her original ranking
1. Albania
2. Netherlands
3. Hungary
4. Russia
5. Serbia
7. Australia
Who is your favourite and has that changed?
Leading into the rehearsals Albania was my favourite entry. It is still in my Top 3 however there were two key elements I feel in love with at FiK that aren’t working for me leading into the contest: the instrumental & the staging. The revamp sucked a lot that I loved from the instrumental and I adored the strong concept of ‘going somewhere’ which all linked to the yearning to return home in the lyrics – the ESC staging doesn’t appear to have as strong a narrative. In combination the sparkle I fell in love with isn’t resonating as strongly as it did for me earlier this year. Until I see full performances I won’t completely discount Albania – however Russia is hot on the heels of becoming my favourite.
Who do you think will win?
For a few weeks now I fully believe Russia will win the contest. They’ve got a lot going for them then the online fandom gives them credit for this year. The song walks the perfect line between ‘Eastern sound’ and Western cheese – both of which go down a treat. It also means he can keep a hand in both buckets of votes. His vocal is one of the better from the contest and his staging is sure to draw some attention. They don’t have oodles of Eastern competition this year which leaves a lot to be tapped into – similar to Bulgaria 2017 where the usual heavy hitting Eastern entrants either withdrew or sent less impactful entries that year. Furthermore, I don’t see the Netta/Eleni/Ani Lorak effect of cancelling out similar entries that weren’t as strong (ie. Saara/Jess/Charlotte Perrelli) happening to Sergey. I think Scream appeals to quite a different market then the other solo male entries high in the odds. Songs like Arcade and Soldi would be more likely to compete for the same votes. As demonstrated by many people I’ve noticed this year having both Italy and The Netherlands in their Top 5. I believe Too Late for Love might fall into a similar vein too for once a year viewers. Sergey could very easily slip in through that gap in the market.
Who do you think will do better than expected?
Before rehearsals I have always thought Serbia and Hungary would do much better than expected (being my 3rd and 6th too) – being reasonably low in most jury and fan polls and odds. Post rehearsals it seems people are starting to come around to it! Both nations are hard to keep down with decent staging and songs traditionally. I also believe Greece will be the highest placed female entry of the contest and will snag a Top 8 position. Better Love has buckets of jury appeal and I think it is a unique sound, performance and from a popular nation at Eurovision – I can see the public getting behind Greece this year since they haven’t for quite a while now.
Who is your potential shock to not qualify?
I really think Portugal isn’t going to qualify. I question if Conan’s vocal and general stage craft might actually turn juries away instead of entice them – the song has many unique qualities which I appreciate but I do believe it will go over the head of the average once a year viewer. In combination I see little to no televote appeal in that semi final combined with limited jury appeal.
How do you think Australia will do and has it changed in your ranking?
I am still feeling the sting of those two single digit televotes still and refuse to be anything but conservative. I think we are more likely to qualify than not. If we make it to the final I think we should be extremely happy if we can make the left hand side – no matter where. I believe we could place between 8th to 22nd. I am more inclined to believe we will be mid of right-hand side. Kate has stayed exactly where I left here all those weeks ago! (7th). Countries in my Top 6 will remain unchanged (although the order might shuffle a bit). 7th & 8th place has been switching between Australia, Iceland and Belgium with Belgium dropping clear out of my Top 10 since rehearsals.
Any other comments or predictions?
Belarus’s staging makes me want to yeet. I am so disappointed. lol rip. What did I expect – it’s Belarus after all.
Than you Liv, say hi to Tony for us!