Eurovision 2022: A statistical analysis of Australia's semi-final draw

Tonight the Eurovision 2022 semi-final allocation draw was completed in Turin, Italy.

Australia drew the second semi-final performing in the first half on Thursday 12 May (European time).

The countries competing in semi-final 2 (Thursday 12 May in Europe) are:

First half

Australia

Georgia

Cyprus

Serbia

Finland

Azerbaijan

San Marino

Israel

Malta

Second half

Montenegro

Romania

Czech Republic

Poland

Belgium

North Macedonia

Sweden

Estonia

Ireland

Voting in this semi-final from the "Big 5" are: United Kingdom, Spain and Germany

But are these nations good or bad news for Australia? We decided to find out.

How we determined the results

Instead of looking at total points or average points given by each country in semi-finals and/or Grand Finals, we took a slightly different approach.

Thanks to the amazing data at https://eschome.net/ we are able to determine the average score given to Australia in each semi-final or Grand Final.

For example, in 2016 each country gave Dami Im's 'Sound of Silence' an average of 12.46 votes (which is the combination of jury and televote, hence why it is more than 12 points).

In 2016 Albania gave Australia 24 points so they would have a difference of +11.54 points (in that year).

We've looked at each nation in our semi-final and determined on average if they give more points than the average country per voting opportunity from 2015 to 2021, or less?

The results

The below scores are the difference between what that country gives to Australia and what the average country gives to Australia.

1. Sweden: 5.6

2. Poland: 3.9

3. Finland: 3

4. UK: 2.9

5. Israel: 2.6

6. Germany: 2.3

7. Spain: 2.3

8. Belgium: 2.0

9. Malta: 1.0

10. Romania: 0.02

11. Ireland: -1.5

12. Czech Rep: -1.7

13. North Macedonia: -1.7

14. Estonia: -1.8

15. Serbia: -1.9

16. Cyprus: -2.1

17. Azerbaijan: -3

18. San Marino: -3.5

19. Montenegro: -4.6

20. Georgia: -5.4

(British and Irish readers may be interested to know that Australia gives the UK and Ireland both 3.9 points more than the average nation.)

In total there were 10 nations who were in the positive and 10 who were in the negative.

Overall the average of the 20 nations is -0.08 which is negligible and basically comes out as neutral.

So as it always ends up, it'll be more about the song and entry from Australia itself, rather than the country in our semi-final.

You can see the full Eurovision draw here: https://www.aussievision.net/post/eurovision-2022-semi-final-allocation-draw-results