In an open year who are the current favourites to win Eurovision 2025?
Eurovision 2025 is shaping up to be a very exciting and unpredictable year! With so many popular novelty-type entries this year, balanced with a high number of jury-vote-stealing ballads, it’s more difficult than ever to predict where the votes will land.
Looking at the odds for 2025, we can already start to see which countries are likely to be serious contenders for the crown. While a few nations traditionally dominate the odds, there are always some surprises, and this year promises to be no different.
Early predictions are swirling around countries who have had strong showings in recent years like Sweden, France and Israel, as well as some unexpected challengers looking to make a mark on the grand stage such as Albania, Estonia and Belgium.
Who do the bookies favour?
We've crunched the numbers and reviewed the odds from various outfits across Europe handily compiled by our friends at EurovisionWorld), and compared them to the local odds from Sportsbet.
But before we deep-dive into the betting odds, it’s always important to consider what gambling is really costing you. Please gamble responsibly and take preventative measures like setting deposit limits. Aussievision is not affiliated with nor is in partnership with Eurovisionworld or Sportsbet.
Do the odds tell us who are the big favourites to watch in 2025? Who are the underdogs to keep an eye on? And does Australia’s very own Milkshake Man Go-Jo stand a chance? Let’s find out!
With only eight weeks before the competition gets underway in Basel, these are the acts the bookies currently have pegged as favourites as of Tuesday 18 March.
Top 10 favourites
EurovisionWorld has determined that all entries in the top 10 have a greater than one per cent chance of winning the competition:
1. Sweden: Kaj – Bara Bada Bastu
Eurovisionworld: 25% winning chance, 74% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $2.88 to win
Sweden’s entry Bara Bada Bastu by Kaj is already generating significant buzz, after beating out former Eurovision winner Måns Zelmerlöw with strong public and jury votes to win Melodifestivalen. With a catchy pop sound that is worlds apart from the precision pop that Sweden is known for sending to Eurovision, Kaj’s energetic and quirky performance could easily propel them to victory.
2. Austria: JJ – Wasted Love
Eurovisionworld: 18% winning chance, 69% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $3.75 to win
Austria is currently sitting atop the leaderboard amongst fans in the My Eurovision Scorecard app. JJ’s Wasted Love offers a dramatic and emotional ballad that epitomises modern Eurovision. The song’s captivating melody transition combined with JJ’s soaring vocals make Austria a serious contender.
3. Israel: Yuval Raphael – New Day Will Rise
Eurovisionworld: 9% winning chance, 67% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $7.50 to win
With Yuval Raphael’s New Day Will Rise, bookmakers believe that Israel is destined for another top 10 finish. Will this uplifting anthem be able to beat 2024’s 5th place result?
4. France: Louane – Maman
Eurovisionworld: 9% winning chance, 61% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $7.50 to win
The last of the 37 songs to be released this year, time is yet to tell whether France’s odds of winning will settle or stay firm. Louane’s Maman brings an emotionally charged performance to Eurovision, and her established career in France adds an extra layer of star power.
5. Netherlands: Claude – C'est la vie
Eurovisionworld: 7% winning chance, 62% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $10 to win
While not the top contender, The Netherlands is consistently in the mix for a top 10 finish, and the song’s playful sound and popularity amongst fans may just surprise audiences and juries alike.
6. Finland: Erika Vikman – Ich Komme
Eurovisionworld: 4% winning chance, 55% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $19 to win
Erika Vikman’s Ich Komme brings a fun, quirky energy to Eurovision this year. While Finland’s odds are a bit lower, this song remains a firm fan favourite across the globe.
7. Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato
Eurovisionworld: 3% winning chance, 50% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $26 to win, (8th place in Sportsbet odds)
Tommy Cash’s Espresso Macchiato is one of the most unconventional entries this year, earning it the title of a dark horse with the potential to snatch victory due to the singer’s wide appeal across Europe.
8. Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe Lights
Eurovisionworld: 2% winning chance, 29% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $36 to win, (11th place in Sportsbet odds)
This high-energy, dance-driven number has the potential to captivate audiences with unimaginably high notes that Red Sebastian has already proven he can pull off in a live environment. With longer odds Belgium faces stiff competition, but could firm if Belgium brings epic staging to Eurovision.
9. Ukraine: Ziferblat – Bird of Pray
Eurovisionworld: 2% winning chance, 53% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $31 to win, (8th place in Sportsbet odds)
Ukraine’s rich history at Eurovision has earned them a loyal fan base, and Bird of Pray could stand out due to its distinctive sound unlike anything the country has sent in recent years.
10. Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm
Eurovisionworld: 2% winning chance, 38% top 10 chance
Sportsbet: $36 to win, (8th place in Sportsbet odds)
The fusion of electronic beats with traditional Albanian music elements certainly makes Albania a standout in the competition, and is sure to appeal to voters who tune into Eurovision exactly to hear uniquely regional sounds like this.
Eurovisionworld and Sportsbet are mostly aligned on which countries comprise the top 10 in the odds, however Sportsbet propels Cyprus’s Theo Evan with Shh into the top 10 at 7th place and $26 to win, bumping Belgium out of the top 10.
How does Australia fare?
Shortly after go-Jo released Milkshake Man, Australia surged as high as 7th in the odds to win Eurovision 2025.
Since then our chances have softened considerably – Eurovisionworld currently has us sitting in 19th position with a 1% chance of victory and an 18% chance of a top 10 finish, whereas Sportsbet is more pessimistic at our chances, putting Milkshake Man in 27th place and offering odds of 151/1.
Bear in mind these are odds to win the competition, not to qualify for the Grand Final.
As we approach the semi-finals, it is likely the odds will tell a different story once factors like staging and live performance come into play. Odds are also structured to attract bets and make money for bookmakers, so can often differ to voting results in fan polls.
For now, it seems that Sweden is once again the country most likely to take out the Eurovision 2025 title. Is it too early to say we might be heading back to Stockholm in 2026? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
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Who do you think will win Eurovision?
Sweden
Austria
Israel
France
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