Eurovision 2025: Semi-final qualifying odds

With the first semi-final of Eurovision 2025 just six weeks away and the semi-final running orders now revealed, it’s the perfect time to take a closer look at the qualifying odds for each country.

A total of 10 acts from each semi-final will make it to the Grand Final, alongside the big five nations and host country Switzerland.

So, who do the bookies have their eyes on to make it through?

The odds for each semi-final were recently released, though it's worth noting that these are from European markets. Australian betting odds for the semi-finals have yet to be made available.

Before we dive in, a quick reminder: if you’re considering placing a bet on Eurovision, make sure to think about the true cost of gambling. Set deposit limits and stay responsible!

All odds information has been sourced from Eurovisionworld.

Who is most likely to qualify from semi-final 1?

Odds as of 4 April 2025

=1. Netherlands: Claude - C'est La Vie - 93%             

=1. Sweden: KAJ - Bara Bada Bastu - 93%

3. Estonia: Tommy Cash - Espresso Macchiato - 91%       

4. Ukraine: Ziferblat - Bird of Pray - 89% 

5. Albania: Shkodra Elektronike - Zjerm - 85% 

6. Norway: Kyle Alessandro - Lighter - 81% 

7. Belgium: Red Sebastian - Strobe Lights - 79%            

8. Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja - 78%              

9. Cyprus: Theo Evan - Shh - 77%         

10. San Marino: Gabry Ponte - Tutta l'Italia - 69% 

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11. Azerbaijan: Mamagama - Run With U - 50%  

12. Slovenia: Klemen - How Much Time Do We Have Left - 41%                         

13. Croatia: Marko Bošnjak - Poison Cake - 27%                           

14. Portugal: Napa – Deslocado - 24%                 

15. Iceland: Væb – Róa - 24%              

Netherlands and Sweden are the clear equal favourites to advance to the Grand Final, with bookies predicting a 93% chance of both countries advancing from the first semi-Final.

Bookies are confident that Estonia, Ukraine and Albania will garner enough public votes to make it to the main event.

Norway, Belgium, Poland and Cyprus are all strong contenders to qualify, and San Marino is predicted to snare the final spot in the top 10.

Outside the top 10, Azerbaijan is a 50:50 bet for making it through to the Saturday night show, whilst it seems the bookies think Slovenia, Croatia, Portugal and Iceland might do better to start planning for next year.

Who is most likely to qualify from semi-final 2?

Odds as of 4 April 2025

1. Finland: Erika Vikman - Ich komme - 90%      

=2. Austria: JJ - Wasted Love - 89%           

=2. Israel: Yuval Raphael - New Day Will Rise - 89%   

4. Lithuania: Katarsis - Tavo akys - 76%                 

5. Australia: Go-Jo - Milkshake Man - 75% 

6. Greece: Klavdia - Asteromata - 75%           

7. Malta: Miriana Conte - Serving - 75% 

8. Czechia: Adonxs - Kiss Kiss Goodbye - 73% 

9. Luxembourg: Laura Thorn - La poupée monte le son - 60%             

10. Ireland: Emmy - Laika Party - 51%                   

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11. Armenia: Parg - Survivor - 48%    

12. Serbia: Princ - Mila - 47%                              

13. Latvia: Tautumeitas - Bur man laimi - 47%            

14. Denmark: Sissal - Hallucination - 47%                 

15. Montenegro: Nina Žižić - Dobrodošli - 36%       

16. Georgia: Mariam Shengelia - Freedom - 23%         

The bookies are predicting that Finland is the most-likely country to proceed to the Grand Final, with a 90% chance emerging victorious from second semi-final.

Austria and Israel are sitting in equal second place to score a Grand Final spot, and Lithuania is expected to sail through.

Australia’s Milkshake Man Go-Jo is currently sitting in an impressive 5th place to win enough popular votes and make it to the Grand Final, with his odds sure to improve now that he has landed in Europe to bring his infectious energy to the preview parties.

Greece, Malta and Czechia are all heavily favoured to advance to the Eurovision final, with Luxembourg and Ireland expected to scrape through and take out the remaining spots in the top 10.

Hovering just outside the Top 10, the competition to qualify is fierce. Bookies believe the chances of Armenia, Serbia, Latvia and Denmark advancing from semi-final 2 are borderline, whereas Montenegro and Georgia are expected non-qualifiers for the 2025 Eurovision Grand Final.

The road to Basel

It’s important to remember there’s still plenty to unfold before Eurovision kicks off, including the all-important rehearsals. If your favourite isn’t ranking high in the odds just yet, things will certainly change once the acts start revealing their performances in Basel.

What do you think of the odds? Do the bookies have it right, or are they sleeping on your favourite? Let us know in the comments.

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