Eurovision odds - how accurate are they?

Before we start the article, if you are considering betting on Eurovision, think about what gambling is really costing you and take measures like setting a deposit limit.

Now that all the songs are out and we have less than a month to go, fans begin the thorough analysis of how the entries will go in May.

We review the votes through My Eurovision Scoreboard, OGAE polling and of course we have the odds.

Now betting markets have been quite accurate about Eurovision many times, however, they've also been quite off, by a long way!

Let's take an in-depth look at the last four Eurovision Song Contests.

2018

The winner

In March of 2018, the odds were spot on the money with the winner 'Toy' as a heavy favourite. Despite a few hiccups in the week of the contest, Netta did go on to win.

The Top 10

The Top 10 however, was not quite as accurate. Only four of the Top 10 in the odds actually finished there: 'La Forza' from Estonia, 'Lie to Me' from Czech Republic and 'Dance You Off' from Sweden. The other six included five songs outside the 10 (including Australia's own 'We Got Love') and a non-qualifier in 'A Matter of Time' from Belgium.

The big misses

The eventual runner-up 'Fuego' was 25th in March 2018, with prices between 67-1 and 100-1.

Additionally, Austria's song 'Nobody But You', which finished 3rd, was 16th in the odds.

Semi-finals

The semi-final qualifying predictions also paint an interesting picture.

Only six of the 10 predicted acts to qualify by odds made the Grand Final from semi-final 1. Belgium, Greece, Armenia and Azerbaijan all missed out while Lithuania, Cyprus, Ireland (17th in the odds) and Albania (18th) in the odds made it through.

And in case you missed it there, CYPRUS, ie Eleni Foureira's 'Fuego', wasn't in the odds to qualify for the final, let alone finish runner-up.

Semi-final 2 fared a little better with seven out of the 10 predicted acts making it through. Those expected to make it but missing out were Russia, Latvia and Poland. While Hungary, Moldova and Slovenia (16th in the odds) got the Grand Final ticket.

2019

The winner

In 2019 the odds were again spot on with the winner, 'Arcade' was a comfortable favourite and went on to win in Tel Aviv.

Top 10

All songs in the Top 5 were all in the first six of betting at this point. However, three songs in the Top 10 didn't feature that high on Grand Final night - 'Replay' from Cyprus, 'Chameleon' from Malta and 'Better Love' from Greece.

Just outside the Top 10 of the betting in 11th and 12th place were two non-qualifiers - Portugal and Armenia.

Semi-finals

Seven of the 10 expected qualifiers did get through in semi-final 1 with Belgium, Hungary and Portugal missing out.

The unexpected qualifiers from the odds were Serbia (11th), San Marino (14th) and Belarus (15th).

Eight of the 10 expected qualifiers from odds made it through with only Armenia and Lithuania missing out.

North Macedonia (who went on to win the jury vote and finish Top 10) was outside the qualifiers in the odds, as was Albania with 'Ktheju Tokes'.

2021

The winner

The betting odds did not predict a 2021 Eurovision victory for Italy and Måneskin last year.

In early April, they were fifth in the odds with Malta leading the pack. Destiny from Malta would go on to finish in seventh place.

The odds did have some success in predicting Switzerland and France to finish in the Top 3.

The Top 10

Only six of the Top 10 in the odds finished that high on the night. Bulgaria, Sweden, San Marino and Norway all finished further down the scoreboard.

The big misses

Ukraine who finished fifth at Eurovision (and were second in the televote) were only 18th in the odds at the start of April last year.

Semi-finals

Eight of the 10 expected qualifiers made it through to the Grand Final from semi-final 1. Only Romania and Croatia missed out with Belgium (11th in odds) and Israel (12th) taking their spot.

Unfortunately, the odds did accurately predict Australia's non-qualification.

The odds were almost perfect with the qualifying with nine of the 10 that high in the odds before the contest. Austria who were 10th in the odds missed out with Portugal (12th) taking their place.

2022

The winner

The betting odds were on the money when it came to predicting a Ukrainian victory. They were the heavy favourite and did go on to win Eurovision.

They also predicting high finishes for the UK and Sweden, but were off someway with Spain.

The Top 10

Seven of those in the Top 10 of the odds finished that high at Eurovision. Poland, Netherlands and Australia didn't make the Top 10.

The big misses

Serbia finished 5th on the night but were only 17th in the odds in March 2022. Moldova was the other big surprise, finishing 7th (and 3rd in the televote) when they were 25th in the odds at this stage.

Semi-finals

Eight of the 10 expected qualifiers made it through to the Grand Final from semi-final 1. Only Albania and Austria missing out with Switzerland (11th in odds) and Iceland (14th) taking their spot. Albania's miss was probably the biggest miss considering it was 4th in the odds to qualify.

The bookies did well for this semi-final with nine of the 10 making it through. Only Cyprus missed out replaced by 11th in the odds Azerbaijan.

2023

The winner

The betting odds were on the money when it came to predicting a win for Sweden. Loreen was the heavy favourite and did go on to win Eurovision.

They also predicted Finland finishing runner-up and Norway's top five result.

The Top 10

Six of those in the Top 10 of the odds finished that high at Eurovision. Spain, Austria, UK and France did not make the top 10.

The big misses

Italy finished fourth but 11th in the odds, Belgium finished 7th but were 31st in the odds, Estonia was 22nd in the odds and finished 8th, Australia was 19th in the odds and finished 9th. Additionally, Lithuania was 35th in the odds and finished 11th.

Semi-finals

Nine of the 10 expected qualifiers made it through to the Grand Final from semi-final 1. The qualifier not in the Top 10 of the odds was Portugal who was 11th.

Seven of the 10 expected qualifiers made it through to the Grand Final from semi-final 2. The qualifiers not in the Top 10 were Belgium (11th), Poland (12th) and Albania (13th). Georgia who were second in the odds did not qualify.

So should we trust the odds?

Overall the odds for the last five Eurovision Song Contests have got a lot of things right - the winner on four out of five occasions and those in the Top 3 of the odds certainly go on to do well (the lowest an 8th place for 'La Forza' in 2018).

But it's certainly missed a few big results. The winner from 2021, Måneskin, was behind the main pack, they were way off with 'Fuego' in 2018, 'Shum' was a blind spot in 2021. As was the success of wildcards like Serbia and Moldova in 2022 and Italy and Belgium in 2023 (and even Australia).

The odds have a semi-final record of 78% overall, which is very solid, but also allows for a lot of hope for those outside the qualifying odds. And that hope certainly does pays off as songs as low as 18th in the odds to qualify from a 19-song semi-final getting through.

Additionally, when we start to look a further back than 2018, big favourites have also not gone on to win.

'Occidentali's Karma' in 2017 was a heavy favourite but finished 6th and 'You Are the Only One' was the expected winner in 2016 and went on to finish 3rd (with Jamala at around 30/1 only weeks out from the Contest).

So odds are definitely a good guide, but the only guarantee is that they will always get a few things wrong.

In 2024 will they be on the money? Or will we see some shock results yet again?

We'll have to wait until May to find out!

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